Since we all know the joke about opinions, I have one like everyone else, and I'd like to share my opinion on the economy in 2009 with you. I have been through a few tough times since I joined the automotive brotherhood in 1971. Actually, I went through rough times before then. While I am the CEO of a company that mentors 947 independent automotive service centers and tire dealers every week, I had three different colleges ask me to leave, and leave I did. So I have seen in our industry some shops doing better and just as many doing much worse. So what's my opinion on 2009 and what can you do to survive?

We are now in a recession that will probably not bottom out until the third quarter of 2010. Be prepared for a long slow recovery and don't get comfortable at the first sign of improvement. This is not going to be the typical recession we have all seen where car sales go down and the repair business goes up. The fleet has matured and is capable of going long periods without repair and maintenance. The housing market will continue to decline until the first quarter 2010, when the entire market will be in the trough and begin to climb out.

If you can re-engineer your business to generate cash, there will be a lot of opportunities if you wait on them. Disinflation (a decrease in inflation) will take place in 2009 and 2010 with it returning from 2011-2013. This will allow you to only have to increase prices slightly to keep up with your financial model you have been used to. Credit conditions will not improve in 2009, but 2010 will be a good year to borrow, maybe even a good time to buy that building or property you've been thinking about.

The good news is that with many of your competitors going out of business, pro-active shop owners can increase market share and repair sales even though the maintenance business will suffer. Re-engineer your management objectives to take advantage of the upturn on the other side of this recession. Make no mistake about it: the shops that are really in trouble right now will have terrible odds of surviving until 2010 unless they change immediately. Lead with confidence and optimism that we can beat this economic downturn.

Now, I want to tell you that most of us, I believe, will be fine in the service and tire replacement business if we pay attention in order of importance to gross profit, margin dollars, average repair order, stabilizing car count and expenses. The toughest challenge for owners is to make those tough decisions to stay alive. Many may have to die so you can live.

You must re-engineer your staffing, business and financial model so you can get through these tough times. If you were a military commander, you would have to get used to sacrificing lives so the majority could live. Many shop owners can't do this or they do it too late in the game after it has sucked the life out of the cash flow of the business. I strongly suggest a coach or a mentor to help you through these times if you are famous for reacting too slowly.

I have two coaches that help me make better, faster decisions because I know I am a softy and will do damage because I am too slow to change. If you or your loved ones have ever told you that you change too slowly, you are in very dangerous territory in this economy. If you have not re-engineered your business for the next two years, you have already moved way too slow and have probably damaged your retirement timetable.

Talking about retirement, I said before that as of Nov. 1, you could expect another 10 percent drop in the S&P 500 before we start back uphill. Now that the date has passed, you can judge my ability to forecast. I also said you could expect a very volatile market until January 2009, so just hang in there on your retirement investments. The markets in Russia, France and the Netherlands will be a mess for quite a while.